Thursday, July 17, 2025 – Houston, Texas — A tropical disturbance pushing west across the Gulf of Mexico is expected to bring widespread downpours, localized flooding, and a dramatic increase in rainfall across Southeast Texas, especially east of Houston, by Friday morning.
Thursday stays mostly dry in Houston
High pressure remains dominant over Southeast Texas for most of Thursday, keeping skies partly cloudy in the morning and mostly sunny by the afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s°F (about 34–36°C), but humidity will drive heat index values above 100°F (around 38°C).
According to the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model, a few isolated tropical showers could sneak into Southeast Texas during the evening hours. Most rain activity will be limited to areas east of Interstate 45, with the majority of Greater Houston staying dry through the afternoon commute.
Friday brings heavy rainfall, especially east of Houston
By early Friday, the tropical disturbance now tracking along the northern Gulf Coast will make its closest approach to Texas, drawing in deep moisture and unleashing rounds of tropical downpours across the region.
Forecast models suggest the heaviest rain totals will remain east of Houston, with 4 to 6 inches (about 100–150 mm) expected across southern Louisiana and localized totals reaching 8 to 10 inches (around 200–250 mm).
Within eastern Greater Houston, especially between Baytown and Beaumont, 1 to 3 inches (roughly 25–75 mm) of rain are likely, with some spots seeing more intense bursts.
Flash flood risk is elevated for travelers heading toward Lake Charles, Baton Rouge, or Lafayette on Friday, where the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center has issued a level 3 out of 4 flood risk, signaling at least a 40% chance of rapid-onset flooding.
Morning commute could be impacted
The flood threat begins as early as Friday morning, especially for commuters heading into Houston from Mont Belvieu, La Porte, or other eastern suburbs. Expect slow travel conditions during the morning commute (6 to 9 a.m.), with heavier rainfall building through midday and likely peaking in the early afternoon.
This setup raises the potential for localized street flooding, particularly in low-lying neighborhoods and along poorly drained roadways.
By the weekend, conditions begin to shift
By Saturday, the tropical system is expected to turn northward and move inland across Louisiana, with rainfall rates weakening as its moisture source fades. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will still persist into Saturday, but overall intensity should begin to drop.
Drier air will return to Southeast Texas on Sunday, bringing sunshine and warmer temperatures across most Houston-area neighborhoods. Expect highs between 94°F and 96°F (about 34–36°C) as summer heat builds into early next week.
