High pressure finally settles over South-Central Texas
A strong dome of high atmospheric pressure has taken hold over much of Texas this week, bringing a welcome pause to the relentless cycle of daily downpours that drenched the state during the first half of July. The sinking air associated with this pressure ridge helps suppress thunderstorm activity, creating a drier and more stable environment—at least across South-Central Texas.
However, the eastern fringe of the state isn’t quite out of the woods. The National Hurricane Center is actively monitoring a low-pressure system lingering near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. There’s a moderate chance this system could develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. Even if it doesn’t organize further, it’s still poised to send bands of tropical moisture into far East Texas, with heavy rainfall and potential flooding on the horizon.
San Antonio forecast: Warm, dry and slightly cooler mornings
As of Thursday morning, residents in San Antonio and the nearby Hill Country are experiencing slightly cooler pre-dawn temperatures. Expect early lows near 73°F (23°C) in San Antonio, with upper 60s°F (around 20°C) across Kerrville, Boerne, and other rural valleys from 6 to 8:30 a.m.
By midday, temperatures will climb steadily under partly to mostly sunny skies, peaking around 95°F (35°C) by late afternoon. That reading is typical for mid-July, and no rainfall is expected today. San Antonio, the I-35 corridor, and the Hill Country will remain firmly under the influence of this dry, subsiding air mass.
Tropical rain targets East Texas by Thursday night
Starting Thursday evening, especially after 7 p.m., a plume of deep tropical moisture is expected to surge into Southeast Texas, driven by the disturbance in the Gulf. Whether or not this system is upgraded to Tropical Depression Dexter depends on whether its center tracks over open water or stays close to land. A path over water could allow it to strengthen, but significant development is less likely if it remains near the coast.
Regardless of classification, rain will fall. The heaviest amounts are expected between Thursday night and Friday across Beaumont, Port Arthur, and surrounding areas, where rainfall totals could reach 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated pockets potentially collecting up to 5 inches (127 mm).
Further west, Lufkin, Houston, and Galveston are likely to receive 0.25 to 1 inch (6 to 25 mm) of rain. Meanwhile, this moisture won’t make it far enough west to reach San Antonio. On Friday, the Alamo City may notice some extra cloud cover, but rain chances will hover around just 10%, with high temperatures slightly cooler, around 93 to 94°F (34 to 34.5°C).
No triple-digit heat—for now
The high-pressure ridge over South-Central Texas is expected to persist through the weekend and into much of next week. While July often brings daily highs above 100°F (38°C), this particular pattern isn’t strong enough to produce extreme heat.
On Saturday, San Antonio will likely reach the mid-90s, followed by a high near 97°F (36°C) on Sunday. Morning lows will stay close to seasonal averages, between 75 and 77°F (24 to 25°C).
Next week, temperatures may tick slightly higher, but are still expected to remain just below the 100-degree mark. Forecasts from Monday through Wednesday show highs in the 97 to 99°F (36 to 37°C) range, under partly to mostly sunny skies. No significant rainfall is in the outlook for San Antonio during this stretch.
