NEW YORK, Thursday, July 17, 2025 (6:00 AM ET) – A tropical system moving across the Gulf of Mexico is expected to intensify over the next 24 to 48 hours and may soon become Tropical Storm Dexter, the fourth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. As of this morning, the system is tracking westward through the Florida Panhandle, bringing increasing rain and storm activity to a broad swath of the Southeastern United States.
High flood risk from Florida to Louisiana through the weekend
Florida, particularly the eastern coast, has already experienced intense thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, with localized totals ranging between 1 and 3 inches (25 to 76 mm). On Tuesday, the system crossed the peninsula, entering the Gulf Coast with stronger moisture support from the tropical air mass currently dominating the region.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that a broad low-pressure area is now centered between Tallahassee and Panama City, moving west and interacting with very warm Gulf waters. These sea surface temperatures, currently well above average, are creating a favorable environment for further development, potentially leading to tropical storm formation within the next 48 hours.
Wednesday brings level 1 flood threat from Florida to Louisiana
A level 1 of 4 flood risk has been issued for areas stretching from western Florida through southern Louisiana, including parts of Alabama and Mississippi. Most rainfall is expected during the late afternoon and evening hours, but isolated intense storms may occur earlier, particularly along the immediate coastline.
Thursday to Friday: higher threat levels for Mississippi, Alabama and southeast Louisiana
The most severe flooding threat is forecast for Thursday into the weekend, as the system pushes further west into central-northern Gulf states. Areas including New Orleans, Mobile, Biloxi, and Gulfport fall under a level 2 flood risk for Thursday. On Friday, the threat escalates to level 3 of 4 for portions of southeastern Louisiana, especially around Baton Rouge, due to concerns over prolonged rainfall and already saturated ground conditions.
Potential for Tropical Storm Dexter near the Gulf Coast
According to the NHC, if the system remains over open waters long enough, it could strengthen and be named Dexter. Its development would likely occur near the northern Gulf coastline, an area historically prone to storm formation in July due to shallow, warm waters acting as storm fuel. With sea surface temperatures well above seasonal averages, the risk of tropical intensification remains high.
The exact track, intensity, and speed of the system remain uncertain. These factors will significantly determine which regions experience the heaviest rainfall and worst flooding. However, residents and authorities in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana—particularly in low-lying coastal zones—should remain alert for rapid changes in weather conditions as this system evolves.
