July has officially begun, and as usual, it’s going to be hot in Alabama—but this year, temperatures could climb even higher than normal. According to the latest temperature outlook released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 33 to 40 percent probability that July 2025 will bring above-average heat across the entire state.
Hotter-than-average July for Alabama
Although high temperatures are a summer staple in Alabama, the outlook for this month suggests a stronger-than-usual heatwave, especially in central and southern Alabama, where chances for above-average warmth reach 40 to 50 percent between July 8 and July 14. Northern Alabama, on the other hand, is expected to experience near-average conditions, with a slightly lower probability of exceeding normal values.
Rainfall also likely to increase
Alongside the heat, wetter conditions are forecast for much of Alabama. The July precipitation outlook indicates a 40 to 50 percent chance of above-average rainfall for most areas, with northwest Alabama showing slightly lower odds at 33 to 40 percent. From July 8 to July 14, these elevated rainfall probabilities persist, suggesting that while the state will bake in the heat, it won’t be entirely dry.
What’s normal for July?
To put things in perspective, here are the average July highs and monthly rainfall totals in some of Alabama’s key cities:
In Montgomery, the typical high reaches 93.7°F (34.3°C) with 5.06 inches of rain.
Dothan usually hits 93.3°F (34.1°C) with 5.95 inches, while Mobile averages 90.9°F (32.7°C) with a substantial 7.69 inches of rainfall.
Birmingham sees about 91°F (32.8°C) paired with 5.42 inches, and Huntsville averages 91.5°F (33.1°C) and 4.49 inches.
These benchmarks help highlight how even modest increases in heat or precipitation can make a difference in daily conditions and climate patterns.
Summer heat to linger through September
Looking beyond July, the three-month seasonal outlook from NOAA projects that above-average temperatures will likely persist across Alabama through September. The entire state faces at least a 33 to 40 percent chance of continued elevated heat, with southern Alabama possibly climbing into the 40 to 50 percent range.
In terms of rainfall, the seasonal forecast mirrors July’s trend. Most of Alabama is expected to receive more rainfall than usual over the next three months, with 40 to 50 percent odds for above-average precipitation, again excluding the northwest, which sits at 33 to 40 percent.
As July unfolds, both the heat and the rain are expected to intensify—a classic Alabama summer, just a bit more extreme.
