Southern Michigan is currently in the grip of intense heat, with temperatures soaring well above average for late June 2025. This unseasonable heat wave has sparked questions about whether extreme temperatures will dominate the rest of summer in the Great Lakes State.
What to expect from July through September in Michigan
The latest long-range forecast, released on June 19 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, suggests a moderate likelihood of above-normal temperatures in Michigan from July through September. While this doesn’t guarantee record-breaking heat, it does mean that daily highs will more often reach into the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit (around 29°C to 34°C), especially across southern areas.
In fact, if the current hot stretch in late June is any indication, it sets the stage for more frequent hot spells in July. But unlike the persistent heat we’re experiencing now, the models do not currently predict a return of extreme heat until possibly mid-July or later. Until then, expect a mix of warm summer days, with occasional spikes near 90°F (32°C).
Michigan’s summer highs: what’s considered normal
Historically, average high temperatures in July and August across Michigan range from 80°F (27°C) in the north to about 83°F (28°C) in the south. By late September, highs typically drop into the 70s (21°C–26°C). A forecast trend toward warmer-than-average temperatures implies frequent highs in the mid to upper 80s (29°C–31°C), and periods of low 90s (32°C–34°C) aren’t out of the question.
What about rainfall? No strong signal for Michigan
As for precipitation, there’s no clear indication of any strong trend across Michigan from July to September. The long-range outlook does not predict either significantly wetter or drier-than-normal conditions. This usually translates into a typical summer mix of dry stretches and localized thunderstorms.
Interestingly, the forecast does suggest drier-than-normal weather just to the west of Michigan, while the southeast U.S. is expected to be wetter than average. For Michigan, this neutral outlook doesn’t exclude the chance for isolated heavy rain events, especially when hot, humid air masses move in from the south.
A recent example occurred just this past Saturday morning, when a cluster of thunderstorms dumped over 4 inches of rain in some areas—illustrating how localized downpours can still break out even in an otherwise quiet pattern.
No return to May’s gloomy pattern
Importantly, there’s no sign of returning to the cool, cloudy, and soggy weather that dominated much of May. The overall temperature trend points toward a warm, classic Michigan summer, perfect for enjoying lakes, pools, and the coastline—even if you may need to dodge a few thunderstorms along the way.
As of now, Michigan is on track for a summer rich in sunshine, with heat that, while persistent, won’t necessarily be relentless—at least not immediately.
